23 September 2026

Dr Jason Fox on AI, Wisdom and Judgement

dr jason fox

AI Can Give You an Answer:
Knowing When It’s Wrong Is the Harder Part

AI can produce a convincing answer in seconds. But when everyone has access to the same tools, knowing what to question, what to trust and when to change your mind becomes more important. Brendan and Ross catch up with Dr Jason Fox at IT Nation 2026 to talk about AI, discernment, uncertainty and staying relevant when nobody quite knows what comes next.

Dr Jason Fox
Dr Jason Fox
Philosopher, complexity practitioner and self-described wizard
24 min · Free to watch

Watch the Conversation

Watch the conversation on YouTube

 

The Short Version

As AI makes sophisticated answers easier to access, human judgement becomes more important, not less. Dr Jason Fox argues that businesses need people who can question AI outputs, seek opposing views, notice unusual signals and stay open to changing their minds as new information appears.

What’s Covered

  • 00:20
    Why Jason returned to IT Nation and what drew him to the community
  • 01:47
    Why wisdom and discernment matter when intelligence is everywhere
  • 04:04
    AI, expertise and the danger of sounding smarter than we are
  • 06:20
    The “midwit trap” and the performance of sophistication
  • 07:29
    Why asking “Where am I wrong?” can lead to better thinking
  • 08:33
    Leading through a period “betwixt worlds”
  • 10:14
    Creating enough certainty for people to work without becoming rigid
  • 11:44
    Using powerful technology without becoming consumed by it
  • 13:38
    AI validation, echo chambers and why doubt is useful
  • 15:23
    Why actively challenging an idea can make it stronger
  • 17:21
    Data, anomalies and the weak signals businesses can easily miss
  • 19:16
    Why best practice can sometimes pull businesses towards the average
  • 20:28
    Making room to think instead of immediately reaching for an answer
  • 22:47
    Technology, vocation and the difference between value and profit

Six Things Worth Taking Away

01

AI can sound convincing even when it is wrong. Fluency and expertise are not the same thing.

02

As access to AI grows, people still need the judgement to decide what is relevant, credible and worth acting on.

03

Doubt can improve thinking. Asking “Where am I wrong?” helps expose assumptions that might otherwise go unchallenged.

04

Leaders need to give people enough certainty to work while leaving room to question assumptions as conditions change.

05

Not every useful signal appears neatly in the data. The odd comment or recurring customer complaint may be worth investigating.

06

Best practice has its place, but following the same playbook as everyone else can make it harder to spot what should come next.

Why Does Discernment Matter More When Everyone Has AI?

AI is making access to information and apparent expertise much easier.

Jason’s concern is that an answer can sound convincing without necessarily being correct. That becomes especially difficult when the person reading the response does not already know enough about the subject to recognise the gaps.

As he puts it:

“Large language models are very impressive, but particularly if you don’t have subject matter expertise.”

That makes discernment increasingly important.

It is the ability to look at an answer and ask whether it actually makes sense in this situation. What assumptions sit behind it? What might be missing? Does it fit what we know about the business? What would someone with a different view say?

For businesses adopting AI, access to the tool is only part of the equation. Someone still has to judge the result.

What Is the “Midwit Trap”?

Jason uses the term “midwit trap” to describe what he calls the performance of sophistication.

An answer becomes longer. There are more complicated words. There are frameworks and explanations. The sheer amount of information makes it feel impressive.

AI is particularly good at producing this kind of material.

The risk is that we walk away feeling as though we understand something more deeply than we actually do.

Jason argues there is often more honesty in being able to say:

“I don’t really know. But here’s the questions we’re working on.”

That matters in business because polished output can create a false sense of certainty.

A lengthy AI-generated strategy is not automatically better than a short document that clearly explains what is known, what is uncertain and what still needs to be tested.

Should AI Always Agree With You?

Probably not.

The conversation touches on a familiar problem with generative AI. The direction you give it can shape the answer you receive.

Ask why your idea is good and you can get an excellent explanation of why it is good. Keep doing that and it becomes easy to build an increasingly convincing argument around your original assumption.

Ross describes using different AI models to argue opposing sides of an issue rather than asking one system to keep developing his existing position.

Jason sees value in that kind of resistance.

“Doubt is evidence of thinking.”

Instead of only asking AI to develop an idea further, businesses can use it to challenge their reasoning.

Try questions such as:

  • Where might this assumption be wrong?
  • What is the strongest argument against this decision?
  • What information would change this conclusion?
  • What are we overlooking because it does not fit our current view?
  • If this strategy failed, what would probably have caused it?

The point is not to create endless debate. It is to give an idea enough resistance to see whether it still holds up.

How Do You Lead When Nobody Knows Exactly What Comes Next?

Jason describes the current period as a time “betwixt worlds”.

Businesses have spent years improving systems, practices and operating models built for a relatively stable environment. AI and other emerging technologies are now changing some of the assumptions underneath them.

The next stable model is not yet clear.

That creates an uncomfortable position for leaders, particularly those who built their careers by being the person with the answer.

Jason suggests leaders should instead create what he calls “islands of coherence”.

Give people enough stability and clarity to do their work, but do not make the organisation so certain of its existing model that it stops paying attention.

That might mean holding a working hypothesis rather than pretending to have a permanent answer.

It might mean saying:

“We think this is the right direction based on what we know today. Here’s what we’re watching, and here’s what would make us reconsider.”

How Should Businesses Use Powerful Technology Without Being Consumed by It?

Jason uses his self-described “wizard” persona to make a serious point.

Powerful technology should be used, not ignored. But it also requires perspective.

Businesses do not need to respond to AI by avoiding it altogether. At the same time, being swept up in every new capability can make it harder to judge whether the technology is actually helping.

A useful question is not simply:

“What can AI do?”

It is:

“Does using AI here make this work better?”

That means keeping enough human understanding in the process to recognise when the technology is helping, when it is not, and when the way the business works may need to change.

What Can Businesses Notice That Data Might Miss?

Good data matters. But relying only on established data can also reinforce what the business already believes.

Jason talks about developing an “acuity for anomaly”.

The people speaking to customers or doing the work every day are often the first to notice something unusual.

A customer keeps raising an odd complaint.

The same unexpected question appears in several conversations.

Someone in operations notices a workaround becoming common.

One of those signals may look insignificant. Several appearing over time may suggest something worth investigating.

The difficulty is that businesses do not always have a formal place to capture these faint signals.

Jason’s suggestion is surprisingly simple: give people opportunities to compare notes.

That could be a regular team conversation, an informal weekly catch-up or a longer lunch each month where people can ask:

“What are you noticing?”

Eventually, something that first looked like an outlier may turn into a pattern.

Is Best Practice Always the Best Approach?

Best practice is useful when you need a proven way to do something.

But there is a trade-off.

If everyone follows the same best practice, everyone gradually starts doing similar things in similar ways.

The conversation contrasts “best practice” with “next practice”.

That does not mean throwing out processes that work. It means continuing to ask whether the established approach still makes sense as the context changes.

AI makes that question particularly relevant.

A process designed around what people and technology could do several years ago may not be the process you would design today.

Instead of only asking:

“How does everyone else do this?”

Businesses can also ask:

“Knowing what is possible now, how would we design this if we started again?”

Why Might Businesses Need More Time Without an Instant Answer?

One of the more unusual parts of the conversation begins with poor Wi-Fi.

Jason describes spending time writing in a cabin with very limited internet access and noticing a different quality of attention.

Without an immediate answer a click away, he had to stay with the uncertainty of a problem for longer.

He connects this to poet John Keats’ idea of “negative capability”: the ability to remain with complexity, ambiguity and paradox without immediately reaching for a neat solution.

That is difficult when an answer is always available.

The spare moment that once involved thinking can now become a search, a notification or a question to an AI assistant.

There is obvious value in having answers close at hand. But instant access to an answer and thinking deeply about a problem are not necessarily the same thing.

Sometimes the business may benefit from sitting with the question a little longer.

What Should Technology Ultimately Create?

Jason closes the conversation by returning to why many people entered the technology industry in the first place.

They saw ways technology could make people’s lives better.

That leads to a distinction between profit and value.

Financial return matters, but Jason argues that not every form of value is easily captured in a number.

Value can also appear in the relationships a business builds, the experience customers have and whether technology genuinely improves the work people do.

That is a useful test for AI as well.

The question should not stop at:

“Can we use AI here?”

It should continue to:

“What becomes better if we do?”

Before Accepting the AI Answer

Give the Idea Some Resistance

AI can help you develop an idea quickly. Before acting on it, spend some time trying to disprove it. That can expose assumptions, missing information and alternative explanations that the first answer did not include.

Ask:

  • Where might this be wrong?
  • What assumption is this answer relying on?
  • What evidence would contradict it?
  • What would someone who disagrees with us say?
  • What information are we missing?
  • What would make us change our mind?

A Practical Model for AI-Assisted Decisions

01
Form a working hypothesis
02
Ask where it could be wrong
03
Seek another perspective
04
Notice what doesn’t fit
05
Update as you learn

About the Guest

Dr Jason Fox

Dr Jason Fox

Philosopher, complexity practitioner and self-described wizard

Jason’s work draws on philosophy, living systems science and complexity. In this conversation, he explores what wisdom and discernment look like when AI can give almost anyone access to sophisticated answers, and why staying relevant requires the willingness to question what worked in the past.

Common Questions

Frequently Asked Questions

Why Is Discernment Important When Using AI?

AI can produce polished and convincing answers even when important context is missing. Discernment means assessing the answer, questioning its assumptions and deciding whether it makes sense in the situation rather than accepting it at face value.

What Is the AI “Midwit Trap”?

Dr Jason Fox uses the term “midwit trap” to describe the performance of sophistication. AI can generate lengthy, complicated and polished responses that make someone feel more expert without necessarily giving them a deeper understanding of the subject.

How Can Businesses Stop AI Simply Agreeing With Them?

Use AI to challenge an idea as well as develop it. Ask where an assumption could be wrong, request the strongest opposing argument or have different AI systems explore competing positions before making a decision.

Does AI Make Human Expertise Less Important?

AI makes access to information easier, but expertise still helps people recognise when an answer is incomplete, inappropriate or wrong. Human judgement is also needed to decide which information matters in a particular business context.

How Can Businesses Spot Weak Signals That Data Might Miss?

Create regular opportunities for people working with customers and day-to-day operations to compare what they are noticing. An unusual request, repeated complaint or unexpected workaround may appear insignificant at first but develop into a useful pattern over time.

What Is Negative Capability?

Negative capability is a term Jason references from poet John Keats. It describes the ability to remain with complexity, ambiguity and uncertainty without immediately reaching for a neat answer or quick fix.

What Is the Difference Between Best Practice and Next Practice?

Best practice applies established approaches that are already known to work. Next practice asks what should come after them. As technology and business conditions change, organisations may need to question whether yesterday’s established approach is still the right one.

Full Episode Transcript

Read the Full Episode Transcript

This transcript follows the supplied episode captions and has been formatted into one-minute sections for easier reading.

00:00
Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Uh, so, uh, doctor Jason Fox, thank you for joining us. Let’s start off with how you got mixed up in it. Nation 2026. What got you here? Um, mixed up is great. Um, makes it sound like. Like, uh, obviously something negative happened. Yeah, yeah. So. Yeah. Uh, Nick, Nick Amaran and, uh, Stu Applegate. I did some wonderful work with them beforehand. Um, and I was quite won over by, like, events or events. Right. But the spirit of the communities that came to the evolve, um, uh, workshops and stuff like that, I was really quite taken aback by it.

01:00
There was such a genuine honesty. Um, that is really rare in events because often people come in their professional armour and everything’s great and they’ve got it all sorted out, but I just, I found it so, so refreshingly real. Um, that we’re unprofessional. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So you guys have no idea what you’re doing? And then. And then also the conversations in the corridors and the gaps between sessions, which are so refreshing and interesting and just so wonderful.

02:00
We are in a world where intelligence vastly outpaces wisdom. Um, wisdom is nowhere near as attractive as is intelligence at the moment. Um, but I still think it’s kind of handy to be somewhat wise and discerning in how we go about things. Um, I, I love the word discernment.

03:00
There there we are in time now. But it’s not simply about optimising. Like, it’s not just about optimising for the numbers. We have to actually question are these even the right numbers? Is this moving us closer to future relevance? And future relevance means whatever you’re doing makes sense given the context that has emerged.

04:00
So which of those elements do you want to dive into and which is most relevant to this audience? You talked about a focus on making sure we remain relevant. And that being questioned a little bit at the moment with, in a lot of industries, in some ways. I mean I know we all kind of tend to jump into a ChatGPT or something first now before we go out to an expert.

05:00
Large language models, as we know, are very good at glazing folks, at making them feel very smart and particularly special. And as I like to say, large language models are very impressive, but particularly if you don’t have subject matter expertise. Because they sound like, even when they’re wrong, they sound like they are really good.

06:00
Then there’s this midwit trap where you get the performance of sophistication. You get lots of extra language and lots of extra fancy things. And this is what the large language models do. This feels impressive. There’s a volume of content there. I feel like I’m an expert now. And that’s the midwit trap.

07:00
And what’s actually more honest is, I don’t really know. But here’s the questions we’re working on. I don’t really know. There is a risk that we are just trying to compete with the machines. We become hyper rational. Rationality works within closed systems and where there are clear answers.

08:00
We start comparing different systems rather than being locked within one system. So you’re with the two things, where am I wrong? You have your own thesis, but you’re starting to expand and consider multiple perspectives. And that’s where the discernment comes in.

09:00
We’re in a time betwixt worlds at the moment. The stable era that we’ve optimised for is getting scrambled. We don’t know what is emerging yet. And the honest thing is, look, we don’t know. But here’s what we’re paying attention to and here’s the working hypothesis that we have.

10:00
The wiser thing is like, yes, and also we’re not sure because there’s some things here we’re not seeing yet. If we pay attention to it, some new pathways might emerge. The intelligent, applied curiosity, the wise discernment, the humbling of this thing that worked for us in the past may not work for us in the future, but new things will.

11:00
If you’re a leader, you want to create islands of coherence. You want to provide enough sense of certainty and enough sense of clarity and stability so that folks can do the work, but you don’t want it to become so concrete that folks become narrow in their focus.

12:00
The thing about walking the path of the wizard is, and wizard comes from wisdom, which is coming back to that wise discernment, you want to be aware of power. You want to use power but not be corrupted by power.

13:00
Don’t avoid it. Don’t become like, no, we’re not paying attention. We’re not having anything to do with this kind of remarkable revolution we’re in amongst. But at the same time, don’t become so swept up in it that you lose your sense of perspective.

14:00
There’s all the dopamine that we get from being acknowledged, feeling like we’re right. This can be quite concerning because some people can be lured into a kind of glazing psychosis where the large language model becomes more convincing and compelling than any of their close friends.

15:00
I’m a big fan of doubt. Doubt is evidence of thinking. If you’re familiar with Nassim Taleb’s theory of antifragility, things that gain from disorder, this pursuit of “where am I wrong?” is an antifragile disposition because you’re like, challenge me. What’s going on here? What am I missing?

16:00
The result of that conversation is you’re going to be much wiser. Whatever your strategy or your thing is, it’s going to be much stronger because of that active seeking of disorder. There’s a really important question around whether we are creating environments in which it’s safe to express doubt.

17:00
We’re in a time right now where most of us just do not know. We cannot predict too far into the future about what’s going on because the technology is exponential at this stage. So we just need to be paying attention, keep our wits about us, keep experimenting, keep our finger on the pulse and stay attuned.

18:00
The acuity for anomaly is something that folks working directly with clients or working with the things are the ones that will notice this glimmer of, ha, that’s odd. Or a client’s been whinging about this thing. Maybe we should look into it.

19:00
Really great teams have rituals where they get together and it’s qualitative. It’s people coming together and ultimately just hanging out, comparing notes, talking about how did your week go? What are you noticing? If you do that weekly or have a long lunch once a month, three months later you’re like, hey, this thing keeps coming up.

20:00
There’s this embracing of uniqueness and almost pushing back against the concept of best practice, because best practice actually just means the kind of move to average. If everyone just follows best practice, that just means we’re all normal and average. Best practice and next practice.

21:00
There is something about the quality of attention, particularly the ability for us to stay in the discomfort of the unknown longer. Poet John Keats refers to this as negative capability, and that is the ability to be amidst complexity, ambiguity and paradox without irritably grasping for a neat solution or a quick fix.

22:00
Most of us can’t do that very well these days. Social media doesn’t make it easy. If you think about ideas, where they come in, it’s like during a hike halfway up a mountain or in the shower. Those kinds of times are when you have these ideas because you’ve been alone with your thoughts for a while.

23:00
I think this is a time for all of us to remember the sense of vocation in what we do. The reason that folks got into tech is because they saw how this can make people’s lives better. They’re really passionate about helping people see how we can do these things and generate so much value.

24:00
There’s a really important distinction between value and profit. Sometimes we focus just on the dollars. But there’s a really important conversation around value, and not all of that can be captured within measurement. It’s a qualitative felt sense that emerges through the relationships that we have with each other, with the clients and the customers we serve.

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